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There are several factors that affect a horse’s ability to win a race. One of the major considerations is fitness. There is little doubt that most horse’s fitness is improved by actually racing and trainers will often say a horse “needs the race” to reach its peak. There are though exceptions and over the last few months there were several examples of horses coming back from long layoffs to win their races. At one time this was almost unheard of. In fact it used to be a staple rule of many punters that they would not back a horse that had not run within the last 28 days. The main reason for so many horses coming back to win after a lay is twofold, improved training methods and facilities. Most of the leading trainers now have superb all weather and indoor training set ups, not to mention hydrotherapy pools and other advanced equipment to help get horses race fit. At least one leading expert considers 60 days to be a key length of time for a horse to be off the course. Any horsed that has not run in the last 60 days should not be considered as fit as those horses that have run more recently. In most run of the mill races I think this is a fair guide however, for many of the Group 1 and big handicaps horses are specially prepared by their trainers. For instance I do not suppose that we will see Kauto Star out before the Gold Cup but it would be a braver man than I who would dare say he will not be race fit. To put the whole thing into perspective there is one interesting statistic I came across the other day, 82% of national hunt races are won by horses who had raced within 28 days of their last appearance. So that can be well worth factoring into your calculations when making a selection. The other point to consider is what is called “the bounce effect”. This is where a horse does not perform as well as it otherwise might because it has not fully recovered from the exertions of its previous race. Most horses will need at least a week to get over a race and if it has been a particularly strenuous event because of the competition, distance or going it could take longer. In most cases a horse whose last race was between 8 and 28 days should be considered fit to do the job. Of course fitness is only one of the factors to consider but although there are exceptions the statistics seem to point to it still being very important.
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